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Paul Scherrer Institut PSI Technology Assessment

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Updated:
07.02.2006
E-Mail: peter.burgherr@psi.ch


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Risk Assessment

Selected results

Figure 1: Comparison of aggregated, normalized, energy-related damage rates, based on historical experience of severe accidents that occurred in OECD countries, non-OECD countries and EU15 for the period 1969-2000, except for data from the China Coal Industry Yearbook that were only available for the years 1994-1999. For the Hydro chain non-OECD values were given with and without the largest accident that ever happened in China, which resulted in 26'000 fatalities alone. No reallocation of damages between OECD and non-OECD countries was used in this case. Note that only immediate fatalities were considered here, although latent fatalities are of particular relevance for the nuclear chain.




Figure 2: Comparison of frequency-consequence curves for full energy chains in OECD countries for the period 1969-2000. The curves for coal, oil, natural gas, LPG and Hydro are based on historical accidents and show immediate fatatlities. For the nuclear chain, the results originate from a plant-specific Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of a nuclear power plant and reflect latent fatalities.




Figure 3: Comparison of frequency-consequence curves for full energy chains in non-OECD countries for the period 1969-2000. The curves for coal w/o China, coal China, oil, natural gas, LPG and Hydro are based on historical accidents and show immediate fatatlities. For the nuclear chain, the immediate fatalities are represented by one point (Chernobyl); for the estimated Chernobyl-specific latent fatalities lower and upper bound are given.